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IDENTIFICATION LAG: In the context of economic policies, the time between a shock to the economy and realization that the shock has occurred. This is one of several policy lags that limit the effectiveness of stabilization policies designed to correct business-cycle fluctuations. This is also one of two inside lags. The other is an implementation lag. Also termed recognition lag, the identification lag emerges due to the time needed to measure economic activity. While the lag is generally positive, it actually can be negative through accurate forecasting techniques. When negative policies can be undertaken to correct a problem before it occurs.

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Lesson 2: Economic Science | Unit 3: Verification Page: 9 of 20

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An hypothesis is a possible, even probable, scientific relationship. An hypotheses is a candidate to become a principle. Hypothesis must be tested before becoming principles.
  • A possible hypothesis: The distance between a passing car and a jogger depends on the driver's political philosophy.
  • Alternative hypotheses can also explain differences in distance between jogger and passing car.
An hypothesis that seems reasonable is not necessarily right. It must be verified with real world data.
  • The scientific method does not accept an explanation at face value. It needs to prove an explanation is correct.
  • Scientists check to see if a reasonable explanation is consistent with the data. The scientific process is all about verifying hypotheses.
  • To test our hypothesis, ask people about passing distance and political affiliation.
  • While subjective data, based on asking people, can be useful, objective methods of data collection are usually preferred. Let's use lasers.
  • Government is a fruitful source of objective data.

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MARKET EFFICIENCY

The notion that a competitive market automatically achieves an efficient allocation of resources by equating demand price with supply price and quantity demanded with quantity supplied. Market efficiency relies on the self-correction process that eliminates shortages or surpluses. It also presumes that the market is competitive and is not subject to market failures.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time flipping through mail order catalogs trying to buy either a coffee cup commemorating the moon landing or a how-to book on surfing the Internet. Be on the lookout for florescent light bulbs that hum folk songs from the sixties.
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Lombard Street is London's equivalent of New York's Wall Street.
"Sometimes when you innovate, you make mistakes. It is best to admit them quickly and get on with improving your other innovations. "

-- Steve Jobs, Apple Computer founder

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