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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.
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CONFERENCE BOARD, THE A private, non-profit, global organization established in 1916 that collects and distributes economic data to assist consumers, business leaders, and government policy makers in their economic decisions. The Conference Board is responsible for compiling the leading, coincident, and lagging economic indicators that are used to track business-cycle activity as well as the widely publicized Consumer Confidence Index. The Conference Board also convenes numerous conferences each year that provide forums to discuss and analyze pressing economic issues.
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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time browsing about a thrift store seeking to buy either an instructional DVD on learning to the play the oboe or a small, foam rubber football. Be on the lookout for neighborhood pets, especially belligerent parrots.
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Post WWI induced hyperinflation in German in the early 1900s raised prices by 726 million times from 1918 to 1923.
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"We succeed only as we identify in life, or in war, or in anything else, a single overriding objective, and make all other considerations bend to that one objective. " -- President Dwight D. Eisenhower
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