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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.
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ASSUMPTION An initial condition or statement of a model or theory that sets the stage for an analysis by abstracting from the real world. Assumptions are important to economic analysis. Some assumptions are used to simplify a complex analysis into more easily manageable parts. Other assumptions are used as control conditions that are subsequently changed to evaluate the consequences.
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BLACK DISMALAPOD
[What's This?]
Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time at a garage sale trying to buy either a how-to book on the art of negotiation or a flower arrangement for your aunt. Be on the lookout for poorly written technical manuals.
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This isn't me! What am I?
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Parker Brothers, the folks who produce the Monopoly board game, prints more Monopoly money each year than real currency printed by the U.S. government.
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"If I'm selecting a group, the first thing I look for is a record of achievement . . . If (candidates achieve) in small things, there's a very good chance they'll perform well in big things. " -- Edmund Hillary, explorer
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JLE
Journal of Law and Economics
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