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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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AGGREGATE SUPPLY DECREASE, LONG-RUN AGGREGATE MARKET

A shock to the long-run aggregate market caused by a decrease in aggregate supply, resulting in and illustrated by a leftward shift of the long-run aggregate supply curve. A decrease in aggregate supply in the long-run aggregate market results in an increase in the price level and a decrease in real production. The level of real production resulting from the shock is a smaller level of full-employment real production.

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The earliest known use of paper currency was about 1270 in China during the rule of Kubla Khan.
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