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LAFFER CURVE: The graphical inverted-U relation between tax rates and total tax collections by government. Developed by economist Arthur Laffer, the Laffer curve formed a key theoretical foundation for supply-side economics of President Reagan during the 1980s. It is based on the notion that government collects zero revenue if the tax rate is 0% and if the tax rate is 100%. At a 100% tax rate no one has the incentive to work, produce, and earn income, so there is no income to tax. As such, the optimum tax rate, in which government revenue is maximized, lies somewhere between 0% and 100%. This generates a curve shaped like and inverted U, rising from zero to a peak, then falling back to zero. If the economy is operating to the right of the peak, then government revenue can be increased by decreasing the tax rate. This was used to justify supply-side economic policies during the Reagan Administration, especially the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (Kemp-Roth Act).
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Lesson 12: Business Cycles | Unit 3: Measurement
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Page: 15 of 26
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Lagging economic indicators lag the turning points of business cycles by 3 to 12 months.- Lagging indicators 'seal the deal' by certifying that a contraction or an expansion is over.
- The next turning point usually doesn't begin until lagging indicators confirm that the last one has happened.
- Seven statistics are used as lagging indicators, including in the inflation rate, consumer debt, and the prime interest rate.
- The Composite Index of Lagging Indicators, displayed in this graph, combines all seven into a single number. This index turns after the official business cycle.
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LAW OF SUPPLY The direct relationship between supply price and the quantity supplied, assuming ceteris paribus factors are held constant. This economic principle indicates that an increase in the price of a commodity results in an increase in the quantity of the commodity that sellers are willing and able to sell in a given period of time, if other factors are held constant. The law of supply is an important principle in the study of economics.
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The 22.6% decline in stock prices on October 19, 1987 was larger than the infamous 12.8% decline on October 29, 1929.
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"Sometimes when you innovate, you make mistakes. It is best to admit them quickly and get on with improving your other innovations. " -- Steve Jobs, Apple Computer founder
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MLE
Maximum Likelihood Estimator
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