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January 16, 2026 

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YTM: The common abbreviation for yield to maturity, which is the annual rate of return on a financial asset that is held until maturity. Yield to maturity depends on both the coupon rate and the face or par value paid at maturity. If the selling price of a financial asset is equal to its par value, then the yield to maturity is equal to the current yield and the coupon rate. However, if the asset is selling at a discount, then the yield to maturity exceeds the current yield, which is greater than the coupon rate. And if the asset is selling at a premium, then the yield to maturity is less than the current yield, which is below than the coupon rate.

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State of the ECONOMY
Production/Income
Real average weekly earnings November 2016 $367.50 Bureau of Labor Statistics Constant 1982-84 dollars
Median weekly earnings Third Quarter 2016 $827 / week Up $24 from 3rd Qtr. 2015
GDP: Real Third Quarter 2016 $18,675.3 Billion (Annual Rate) Source: BEA Up 5.0%
U.S. Exports November 2016 $185.8 billion Down 0.2% from Oct. 2016: Econ. Stat. Admin.
e-commerce sales 3rd Quarter 2016 $101.3 billion Up 4.0% from 2nd Quarter 2016 US Census Bureau
Personal Income November 2016 $16,233.8 billion Up 0.1% from Oct. 2016
U.S. Imports November 2016 $231.1 billion Up 1.1% from Oct. 2016: Econ. & Stat. Admin.
Private Employer Cost for Employee Compensation September 2016 $32.27 per hour Benefits are $10.73 / hour Source: BLS
Sales of New Single-Family Homes November 2016 592,000 (seasonal adjusted annual rate) Up % from October 2016 Source: Econ Stats Adm.
Productivity 3rd Quarter 2016 Unchanged from a year ago Source: BLS
Real Average Hourly Earnings November 2016 $10.68 Up $.07 from November 2015
Employment
U 3 Unemployment December 2016 4.7% Up from November Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Job Openings October 2016 5.5 million Steady Bureau of Labor Statistics
U 6 Unemployment November 2016 9.3% Down a little Includes those who have given up looking. BLS
Prices
Consumer Price Index W November 2016 235.215 Down slightly from Oct. 2016 Source: B L S
Money/Interest
U.S. National Debt January 3, 2017 $19,951,017,689,395.11 Up over $1 trillion in 2016: U.S. Debt Clock
Federal Discount Rate January 3, 2017 1.25% Up 0.25%
Prime Rate January 3, 2017 3.75% Up .25% from a year ago
Federal Funds Rate January 3, 2017 .75% Up 0.25% from a year ago
Cyclical Indicators
Consumer Price Index Urban November 2016 241.353 Up 0.2% from Oct. 2016 Source: BLS
New Orders for Manufactured Goods November 2016 $458.3 billion Down 2.4% from Nov. 2016 Econ & Statistics Adm
New Orders for Manufactured Durable Goods November 2016 $228.2 billion U.S. Commerce Dept. Down 4.6% from Oct. 2016
Business Inventories October 2016 $1,814.5 billion Up 2% from Oct. 2015: Econ. Stat. Admin.
Retail Sales November 2016 $468.05 billion U.S Census Bureau
Producer Price Index Final Demand November 2016 110.8 Up 0.4% from Oct. 2016 Soure: BLS.gov
Wholesale Inventories November 2016 $594.5 billion U.S. Dept. of Commerce
Housing Starts November 2016 1,090,000 Down 18.7% from Oct. 2016: U.S. Census Bureau
Construction Spending October 2016 $1,172.6.4 billion Up 0.5% from Sept. 2016 Source: Econ Stats Adm.
Building Permits November 2016 1,201,000 Do 4.7% from October 2016: U.S. Census Bureau
Other
World Population January 3, 2017 7,362,851,059 Higher: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Population January 3, 2017 324,321,654 Up again...U.S. Census Bureau
SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE MARKET

A macroeconomic model relating the price level and real production under the assumption that SOME prices are inflexible, especially resource prices. This is one of two aggregate market submodels used to analyze business cycles, gross production, unemployment, inflation, stabilization policies, and related macroeconomic phenomena. The other is the long-run aggregate market. The short-run aggregate market isolates the interaction between aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply. The key assumption of this model is that SOME prices, especially resource prices, are inflexible. The primary result of this model is that the economy can achieve short-run equilibrium at real production that is either greater than or less than full-employment.

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A Random Walk Through Some ECONOMIC STATISTICS

A pedestrian must always be on guard during any economic excursion, especially when passing the Sylvester J. Peabody Federal Office Building here in Shady Valley. You never know when a window will burst open sending a barrage of glass slivers and economic statistics haphazardly into the street. This is usually followed by a pointy-headed economist who pokes his pointy head through the remaining shards of glass to adamantly declare that there's absolutely, positively NO RECESSION! But he'll recheck the numbers just in case there really is one. WATCH OUT! DUCK!
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PURPLE SMARPHIN
[What's This?]

Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time looking for a downtown retail store seeking to buy either looseleaf notebook paper or a three-hole paper punch. Be on the lookout for letters from the Internal Revenue Service.
Your Complete Scope

This isn't me! What am I?

A lump of pure gold the size of a matchbox can be flattened into a sheet the size of a tennis court!
"Good humor is a tonic for mind and body. It is the best antidote for anxiety and depression. It is a business asset. It attracts and keeps friends. It lightens human burdens. It is the direct route to serenity and contentment."

-- Grenville Kleiser, Author

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Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
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