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January 29, 2026 

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A PRIORI: A presumption made before an analysis is undertaken, often based on experiences, beliefs, or deductions from seemingly self-evident propositions about how the world works. This is a Latin for assumption or axiom. A similar sounding, but opposite term is a posteriori, which is derived from observation or facts. For example, in the study of economics of crime you might assume, a priori, that people are basically "good", because that just seems to be part of human nature, and conclude, a posteriori, that people are more likely to commit crimes when the threat of capture and conviction is lower.

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State of the ECONOMY
Production/Income
Real average weekly earnings November 2016 $367.50 Bureau of Labor Statistics Constant 1982-84 dollars
Median weekly earnings Third Quarter 2016 $827 / week Up $24 from 3rd Qtr. 2015
GDP: Real Third Quarter 2016 $18,675.3 Billion (Annual Rate) Source: BEA Up 5.0%
U.S. Exports November 2016 $185.8 billion Down 0.2% from Oct. 2016: Econ. Stat. Admin.
e-commerce sales 3rd Quarter 2016 $101.3 billion Up 4.0% from 2nd Quarter 2016 US Census Bureau
Personal Income November 2016 $16,233.8 billion Up 0.1% from Oct. 2016
U.S. Imports November 2016 $231.1 billion Up 1.1% from Oct. 2016: Econ. & Stat. Admin.
Private Employer Cost for Employee Compensation September 2016 $32.27 per hour Benefits are $10.73 / hour Source: BLS
Sales of New Single-Family Homes November 2016 592,000 (seasonal adjusted annual rate) Up % from October 2016 Source: Econ Stats Adm.
Productivity 3rd Quarter 2016 Unchanged from a year ago Source: BLS
Real Average Hourly Earnings November 2016 $10.68 Up $.07 from November 2015
Employment
U 3 Unemployment December 2016 4.7% Up from November Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Job Openings October 2016 5.5 million Steady Bureau of Labor Statistics
U 6 Unemployment November 2016 9.3% Down a little Includes those who have given up looking. BLS
Prices
Consumer Price Index W November 2016 235.215 Down slightly from Oct. 2016 Source: B L S
Money/Interest
U.S. National Debt January 3, 2017 $19,951,017,689,395.11 Up over $1 trillion in 2016: U.S. Debt Clock
Federal Discount Rate January 3, 2017 1.25% Up 0.25%
Prime Rate January 3, 2017 3.75% Up .25% from a year ago
Federal Funds Rate January 3, 2017 .75% Up 0.25% from a year ago
Cyclical Indicators
Consumer Price Index Urban November 2016 241.353 Up 0.2% from Oct. 2016 Source: BLS
New Orders for Manufactured Goods November 2016 $458.3 billion Down 2.4% from Nov. 2016 Econ & Statistics Adm
New Orders for Manufactured Durable Goods November 2016 $228.2 billion U.S. Commerce Dept. Down 4.6% from Oct. 2016
Business Inventories October 2016 $1,814.5 billion Up 2% from Oct. 2015: Econ. Stat. Admin.
Retail Sales November 2016 $468.05 billion U.S Census Bureau
Producer Price Index Final Demand November 2016 110.8 Up 0.4% from Oct. 2016 Soure: BLS.gov
Wholesale Inventories November 2016 $594.5 billion U.S. Dept. of Commerce
Housing Starts November 2016 1,090,000 Down 18.7% from Oct. 2016: U.S. Census Bureau
Construction Spending October 2016 $1,172.6.4 billion Up 0.5% from Sept. 2016 Source: Econ Stats Adm.
Building Permits November 2016 1,201,000 Do 4.7% from October 2016: U.S. Census Bureau
Other
World Population January 3, 2017 7,362,851,059 Higher: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Population January 3, 2017 324,321,654 Up again...U.S. Census Bureau
REVENUE EFFECT

The generation of revenue used to finance government operations that results from placing taxes on economic activity. The revenue effect is the primary reason that governments impose taxes on members of society. Without the revenue generated from taxes, governments could not provided valuable and essential public goods nor undertake other government operations. This is one of two effects of taxation. The other is the allocation effect, which is the change in resource allocation that results because taxes create disincentives to produce, consume, and exchange.

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Fact 4: Our Monopolized Markets

Our pedestrian's jaunt through the economy is not, unfortunately, an unrestrained shopping spree for confectioneries, spark plug tools, and Houston, Texas. We have other important errands to run. At the moment we need to hike over to Shady Valley's exclusive provider of cable television services, the Merciless Monolithic Media Masters Cable Television Company, Inc., to inquire about a mysterious fee that appeared last month's bill.

The good news is that the Merciless Monolithic Media Masters (the 4M people) Cable office is a mere 2 miles (3 kilometers for the metrically inclined) from the Shady Valley Central Town Sprawling Hills Shopping Mall. A hop, skip, and a moderately long jump later, our excursion through the economy takes us to the front door of the 4M Cable Television Company where I hope to discover why last month's cable bill included a $3,569 charge for something called "The Vacation Channel." I didn't even know I had a vacation channel. (But, I'm sure it's a great channel, and if I don't have it, then I will certainly subscribe. Please don't disconnect me.)

Of course, because this an afternoon workday, the doors of the 4M office are locked. I can almost make out, through the expensive stained glass windows, what appears to be several Merciless Monolithic Media Masters Cable Television employees, with champaign bottles in hand, dancing on expensive mahogany desks. Let's not disturb them. As they say in the cable business, an upset worker is a disconnected customer.
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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time searching the newspaper want ads looking to buy either arch supports for your shoes or an AC adapter that works with your MPG player. Be on the lookout for attractive cable television service repair people.
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