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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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CHANGE IN SUPPLY

A shift of the supply curve caused by a change in one of the supply determinants. A change in supply is caused by any factor affecting supply EXCEPT price. A related, but distinct, concept is a change in quantity supplied.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time at a going out of business sale trying to buy either 500 feet of telephone cable or a package of 4 by 6 index cards, the ones with lines. Be on the lookout for crowded shopping malls.
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The earliest known use of paper currency was about 1270 in China during the rule of Kubla Khan.
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