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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY

The total (or aggregate) real production of final goods and services available in the domestic economy at a range of price levels, during a period of time in which all prices, especially wages, are flexible, and have achieved their equilibrium levels. Long-run aggregate supply, commonly abbreviated LRAS, is one of two aggregate supply alternatives, distinguished by the degree of price flexibility. The other is short-run aggregate supply. Long-run aggregate supply is combined with aggregate demand, and often short-run aggregate supply, in the long-run aggregate market (or AS-AD) analysis used to analyze economic growth, business-cycle instability, unemployment, inflation, government stabilization policies, and related macroeconomic topics.

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The earliest known use of paper currency was about 1270 in China during the rule of Kubla Khan.
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