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January 29, 2026 

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DEFLATION: An extended decline in the average level of prices. This is the exact opposite of inflation--in which prices are rising over an extended period, and it should be contrasted with disinflation--which is a decline in the inflation rate. Like inflation, deflation occurs when the AVERAGE price level decreases over time. While some prices might decrease, other prices could increase or remain unchanged, so long as the AVERAGE follows a downward trend. Deflation is a rare bird indeed in our economy and typically happens only when we're in a prolonged period of stagnation. We might see some deflation during a fairly lengthy recession, but more than likely deflation saves itself for the occasional depression that dots our economic landscape.

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State of the ECONOMY
Production/Income
Real average weekly earnings November 2016 $367.50 Bureau of Labor Statistics Constant 1982-84 dollars
Median weekly earnings Third Quarter 2016 $827 / week Up $24 from 3rd Qtr. 2015
GDP: Real Third Quarter 2016 $18,675.3 Billion (Annual Rate) Source: BEA Up 5.0%
U.S. Exports November 2016 $185.8 billion Down 0.2% from Oct. 2016: Econ. Stat. Admin.
e-commerce sales 3rd Quarter 2016 $101.3 billion Up 4.0% from 2nd Quarter 2016 US Census Bureau
Personal Income November 2016 $16,233.8 billion Up 0.1% from Oct. 2016
U.S. Imports November 2016 $231.1 billion Up 1.1% from Oct. 2016: Econ. & Stat. Admin.
Private Employer Cost for Employee Compensation September 2016 $32.27 per hour Benefits are $10.73 / hour Source: BLS
Sales of New Single-Family Homes November 2016 592,000 (seasonal adjusted annual rate) Up % from October 2016 Source: Econ Stats Adm.
Productivity 3rd Quarter 2016 Unchanged from a year ago Source: BLS
Real Average Hourly Earnings November 2016 $10.68 Up $.07 from November 2015
Employment
U 3 Unemployment December 2016 4.7% Up from November Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Job Openings October 2016 5.5 million Steady Bureau of Labor Statistics
U 6 Unemployment November 2016 9.3% Down a little Includes those who have given up looking. BLS
Prices
Consumer Price Index W November 2016 235.215 Down slightly from Oct. 2016 Source: B L S
Money/Interest
U.S. National Debt January 3, 2017 $19,951,017,689,395.11 Up over $1 trillion in 2016: U.S. Debt Clock
Federal Discount Rate January 3, 2017 1.25% Up 0.25%
Prime Rate January 3, 2017 3.75% Up .25% from a year ago
Federal Funds Rate January 3, 2017 .75% Up 0.25% from a year ago
Cyclical Indicators
Consumer Price Index Urban November 2016 241.353 Up 0.2% from Oct. 2016 Source: BLS
New Orders for Manufactured Goods November 2016 $458.3 billion Down 2.4% from Nov. 2016 Econ & Statistics Adm
New Orders for Manufactured Durable Goods November 2016 $228.2 billion U.S. Commerce Dept. Down 4.6% from Oct. 2016
Business Inventories October 2016 $1,814.5 billion Up 2% from Oct. 2015: Econ. Stat. Admin.
Retail Sales November 2016 $468.05 billion U.S Census Bureau
Producer Price Index Final Demand November 2016 110.8 Up 0.4% from Oct. 2016 Soure: BLS.gov
Wholesale Inventories November 2016 $594.5 billion U.S. Dept. of Commerce
Housing Starts November 2016 1,090,000 Down 18.7% from Oct. 2016: U.S. Census Bureau
Construction Spending October 2016 $1,172.6.4 billion Up 0.5% from Sept. 2016 Source: Econ Stats Adm.
Building Permits November 2016 1,201,000 Do 4.7% from October 2016: U.S. Census Bureau
Other
World Population January 3, 2017 7,362,851,059 Higher: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Population January 3, 2017 324,321,654 Up again...U.S. Census Bureau
AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES LINE

A graphical depiction of the relation between aggregate expenditures by the four macroeconomic sectors (household, business, government, and foreign) and the level of aggregate income or production. In Keynesian economics, the aggregate expenditures line is the essential component of the Keynesian cross analysis used to identify equilibrium income and production. Like any straight line, the aggregate expenditures line is characterized by vertical intercept, which indicates autonomous expenditures, and slope, which indicates induced expenditures. The aggregate expenditures line used in Keynesian economics is derived by adding or stacking investment, government purchases, and net exports to the consumption line.

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The Risky Business Of INSURANCE

We've avoided the clutches of Smilin' Ted, the insurance guy, during our saunter through economy, but our luck has run out. Here he comes, ready to offer you, me, and everyone else within earshot the chance to buy auto, health, life, and property insurance. If you really, REALLY care to ask, I'm sure that Smilin' Ted has other insurance possibilities as well. But, I'm not going to ask. If YOU want to know, then YOU have to ask.
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BLUE PLACIDOLA
[What's This?]

Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time watching infomercials trying to buy either decorative picture frames or storage boxes for your income tax returns. Be on the lookout for crowded shopping malls.
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This isn't me! What am I?

In his older years, Andrew Carnegie seldom carried money because he was offended by its sight and touch.
"The difference between the impossible and the possible lies in a person's determination. "

-- Tommy Lasorda

S&D
Supply and Demand
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