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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.
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SIXTH RULE OF IGNORANCE The sixth of seven basic rules of the economy, stating that obtaining information is a costly activity that requires resources with alternative uses. As such, no one knows everything and everyone is ignorant about something.
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The portrait on the quarter is a more accurate likeness of George Washington than that on the dollar bill.
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"In a time of drastic change, it is the learners who inherit the future. " -- Eric Hoffer, philosopher
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LCH
Life Cycle Hypothesis
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