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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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HYPOTHESIS: A reasonable proposition about the workings of the world that's inspired or implied by a theory and which may or may not be true. An hypothesis is essentially a prediction made by a theory that can be compared with observations in the real world. Hypotheses usually take the form: "If A, the also B." The essence of the scientific method is to test, or verify, hypotheses against real world data. If supported by data over and over again, hypotheses become principles.

     See also | theory | scientific method | science | verification | data | principle | law | sixth rule of ignorance |


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AGGREGATE SUPPLY INCREASE, SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE MARKET

A shock to the short-run aggregate market caused by an increase in aggregate supply, resulting in and illustrated by a rightward shift of the short-run aggregate supply curve. An increase in aggregate supply in the short-run aggregate market results in a decrease in the price level and an increase in real production. The level of real production resulting from the shock can be greater or less than full-employment real production.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time driving to a factory outlet seeking to buy either a graduation present for your niece or nephew or a toaster oven that has convection cooking. Be on the lookout for infected paper cuts.
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The portion of aggregate output U.S. citizens pay in taxes (30%) is less than the other six leading industrialized nations -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, or Japan.
"If football taught me anything about business, it is that you win the game one play at a time."

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