LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

     See also | economic indicators | lagging economic indicator | coincident economic indicator | money supply | Standard & Poor's 500 | durable good | consumer confidence |

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR, AmosWEB GLOSS*arama, http://www.AmosWEB.com, AmosWEB LLC, 2000-2022. [Accessed: October 1, 2022].

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A monthly survey of 60,000 occupied households undertaken by the Bureau of the Census which is then used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to estimate the employment, unemployment, and labor force status of the entire population. The Current Population Survey (CPS) contains an extensive series of questions designed to identify the wide range of ways a person can be categorized as employed, unemployed, in the labor force, or not in the labor force. The CPS is THE source of data used to calculate the nation's official unemployment rate, as well as other employment measures, such as the employment rate and labor force participation rate.

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