Long Run Growth

The diagram displayed in this exhibit can be used to illustrate the macroeconomy's long-run trend. The red line represents the value of real gross domestic product (real GDP) over a period of several months. Clearly real GDP rises, then falls, then rises, then falls. This is the instability, the ups and downs, that are a fundamental part of business cycles.

To reveal the long-run trend of real GDP, or potential real GDP, click the [Long-Run Trend] button. This blue line represents the amount of real GDP that the economy can produce if all resources are fully employed, resulting in potential real GDP. It has a positive slope because the economy's production capabilities increase over time due to increases in the quantity and quality of resources. Historically, this long-run trend represents approximately a 3 percent annual growth of production capabilities and potential real GDP.

Clearly actual real GDP does not follow this long-run trend of potential real GDP. During some periods actual real GDP is greater than potential real GDP and in other periods actual real GDP is less than potential real GDP, indicated by the red line lying above or below the blue line. During some periods actual real GDP is growing faster than potential real GDP, in other periods actual real GDP is growing slower than potential real GDP, indicated by the red line having a steeper or flatter slope than the blue line. And in some cases actual real GDP declines even though potential real GDP continues to expand.