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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.
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INVOLUNTARY EXCHANGE The process of unwillingly trading one valuable commodity (good, service, or resource) for another, usually prompted by the coercive powers of government. The key term is "unwillingly," which distinguishes involuntary exchanges from voluntary exchanges, such as those that are the foundation of market transactions.
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ORANGE REBELOON
[What's This?]
Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time visiting every yard sale in a 30-mile radius looking to buy either a coffee cup commemorating the first day of spring or a printer that works with your stockpile of ink cartridges. Be on the lookout for fairy dust that tastes like salt.
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This isn't me! What am I?
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Okun's Law posits that the unemployment rate increases by 1% for every 2% gap between real GDP and full-employment real GDP.
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"Whatever course you decide upon, there is always someone to tell you that you are wrong. There are always difficulties arising which tempt you to believe that your critics are right. To map out a course of action and follow it to an end requires...courage." -- Ralph Waldo Emerson
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ARCH
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
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