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November 15, 2025 

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A PRIORI: A presumption made before an analysis is undertaken, often based on experiences, beliefs, or deductions from seemingly self-evident propositions about how the world works. This is a Latin for assumption or axiom. A similar sounding, but opposite term is a posteriori, which is derived from observation or facts. For example, in the study of economics of crime you might assume, a priori, that people are basically "good", because that just seems to be part of human nature, and conclude, a posteriori, that people are more likely to commit crimes when the threat of capture and conviction is lower.

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VARIABLE: A quantity, usually represented as a symbol, that can take on one of a set of values. Variables play a key role in the scientific method and economic analysis. A major task undertaken by the study of economics is to identify the specific value of variables such as price, quantity, unemployment, production, wages, income, among a host of others. This often accomplished using assorted models, such as the market model.

     See also | model | economic analysis | scientific method | exogenous variable | endogenous variable | market | price | quantity |


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BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS

Assorted economic statistics that provide valuable information about the expansions and contractions of business cycles. These statistics are grouped into three sets--lagging, coincident, and leading. Leading economic indicators tend to move up or down a few months BEFORE business-cycle expansions and contractions. Coincident economic indicators tend to reach their peaks and troughs AT THE SAME TIME as business cycles. Lagging economic indicators tend to rise or fall a few months AFTER business-cycle expansions and contractions.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time at a going out of business sale looking to buy either handcrafted decorations to hang on your walls or throw pillows for your bed. Be on the lookout for strangers with large satchels of used undergarments.
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The first "Black Friday" on record, a friday marked by a major financial catastrophe, occurred on September 24, 1869 -- A FRIDAY -- when an attempted cornering of the gold market induced a financial crises and economy-wide depression.
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