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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.
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Lesson Contents
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Unit 1: The Macroeconomy |
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Unit 2: Macro Problems |
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Unit 3: Business Cycles |
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Unit 4: Policies |
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Unit 5: Issues | |
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Macro Basics
In lesson, we move into the formal study of macroeconomics, laying the groundwork for lessons to come. In particular, this lesson introduces several important macroeconomics concepts and notions. Among the list of more important notions are the role an economy plays in the study of macroeconomics, the two key macroeconomic problems of inflation and unemployment, how these problems are related business-cycle instability, and economic stabilization policies designed to correct these problems. - The first unit of this lesson lays the foundation of for the study of macroeconomics, introducing the nature of an economy and providing a little information about the U.S. economy.
- In the second unit, we examine some of the more notable macroeconomics problems, especially production, unemployment, and inflation.
- We then take a look at the importance of business cycles in the macroeconomy, including recent trends in business cycle activity and a few potential business cycle causes.
- The fourth unit then examines the role that economic policies play in the macroeconomy.
- The firth unit wraps up this lesson with a few thoughts about the connection between political philosophies, economic policies, and economic theories.
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RATIONAL IGNORANCE The decision NOT to become informed about a topic (such as what a political candidate wants to do) because the cost of acquiring the information is more than the expected benefit. The rational decision to remain ignorant about a subject is a straightforward application of utility maximization and along with the related notion of rational abstention, is a source of voter apathy and government inefficiency.
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BEIGE MUNDORTLE
[What's This?]
Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time watching the shopping channel seeking to buy either a decorative windchime with plastic or a flower arrangement for that special day for your mother. Be on the lookout for rusty deck screws.
Your Complete Scope
This isn't me! What am I?
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The New York Stock Exchange was established by a group of investors in New York City in 1817 under a buttonwood tree at the end of a little road named Wall Street.
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"To sit back and let fate play its hand out, and never influence it, is not the way man was meant to operate." -- John Glenn, astronaut, U.S. senator
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ARIMA
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
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