Google
Saturday 
January 21, 2017 

AmosWEB means Economics with a Touch of Whimsy!

AmosWEBWEB*pediaGLOSS*aramaECON*worldCLASS*portalQUIZ*tasticPED GuideXtra CrediteTutorA*PLS
Today's Index
Yesterday's Index
126.7

Help us compile the AmosWEB Free Lunch Index. Tell us about your last lunch.

Skipped lunch altogether.
Bought by another.
Ate lunch at home.
Brought lunch from home.
Fast food drive through.
Fast food dine in.
All-you-can eat buffet.
Casual dining with tip.
Fancy upscale with tip.

More About the Index
Favorite number?

0.
1.
42.
99.
Infinity.
Imaginary.

DISCOUNT RATE: The interest rate that the Federal Reserve System charges for loans to banks. To ensure that our nation's banks retain their liquidity and remain in business, the Federal Reserve System stands ready to lend bank reserves on a moment's notice to any bank. The discount rate is the interest rate the Federal Reserve System charges for these loans. Like any interest rate, when it goes up (or down) it discourages (or encourages) borrowing. In principle, the Fed can use the discount rate to control our nation's money supply.

Visit the GLOSS*arama


FALLACY OF FALSE CAUSE:

The logical fallacy of arguing that two events have a causal connection because they are correlated (that is, happen at about the same time). In other words, one event is erroneously assumed to cause the other. This fallacy is the nemesis of the ongoing scientific pursuit to discover the laws of cause and effect.
The fallacy of false cause was one of the more common fallacies committed by ancient ancestors, and it persists to modern times. Lacking sophisticated scientific analysis, the correlation of events, the near simultaneous occurrence of two unrelated phenomena, inevitably lead ancient folk to develop an erroneous causal connection.

Suppose, for example that a wolf howls in the distance, and then someone dies. A few days later, another wolf howls, then someone else breaks a leg. Once again a wolf howls, and then a third person falls sick. "Obviously" the howling wolf is causing bad things to transpire. While this howling-wolf explanation might seem reasonable to people spending their lives eating mastodon meat and sleeping in caves, correlation does not mean cause. These cave-dwelling folk are committing the fallacy of false cause.

Retrieving obvious (even ridiculous) examples of less enlightened human ancestors who perpetually committed this fallacy of false cause is exceedingly easy.

  • The movement of the sun is caused by a god carrying a ball of fire across the sky.

  • Warts can be cured by burying potato skins under an oak tree in the light of a full moon.

  • The configuration of stars in the sky determines personality.
Modern humans know better. Modern humans are now enlightened. Modern humans know that howling wolves do not cause bad things to happen, that the movement of the sun is guided by gravity, that warts are a virus, that the stars do not affect personality.

However, until cause-and-effect relations are verified using the scientific method, the fallacy of false cause is actually quite easy to commit, even among the best and the brightest. In fact, scientists (economists included) regularly commit this fallacy as they sort through numerous potential causes of an event to find the one "true" cause. Before a "false" cause has been undeniably proven as false and then discarded for further consideration, it is likely to be promoted as the "true" cause. Advocates truly believe that they are promoting the "true" cause.

Unfortunately, they are acting out of ignorance. They simply do not know. No one does. In fact, the promotion of "false" cause in search of "true" cause is what the scientific method is all about.

<= FALLACY OF FALSE AUTHORITYFALLACY OF MASS APPEAL =>


Recommended Citation:

FALLACY OF FALSE CAUSE, AmosWEB Encyclonomic WEB*pedia, http://www.AmosWEB.com, AmosWEB LLC, 2000-2017. [Accessed: January 21, 2017].


Check Out These Related Terms...

     | fallacies | fallacy of false authority | fallacy of personal attack | fallacy of mass appeal | fallacy of division | fallacy of composition |


Or For A Little Background...

     | scientific method | economic thinking | economic science | cause and effect | verification | hypothesis | principle |


And For Further Study...

     | seven economic rules | four estates | sixth rule of ignorance | normative economics |


Search Again?

Back to the WEB*pedia


APLS

State of the ECONOMY

Federal Funds Rate
January 3, 2017
.75%
Up 0.25% from a year ago

More Stats

RED AGGRESSERINE
[What's This?]

Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time surfing the Internet looking to buy either a pair of designer sunglasses or looseleaf notebook paper. Be on the lookout for door-to-door salesmen.
Your Complete Scope

This isn't me! What am I?

It's estimated that the U.S. economy has about $20 million of counterfeit currency in circulation, less than 0.001 perecent of the total legal currency.
"The more you praise and celebrate your life, the more there is in life to celebrate."

-- Oprah Winfrey

AR
Average Revenue, Autoregressive
A PEDestrian's Guide
Xtra Credit
Tell us what you think about AmosWEB. Like what you see? Have suggestions for improvements? Let us know. Click the User Feedback link.

User Feedback



| AmosWEB | WEB*pedia | GLOSS*arama | ECON*world | CLASS*portal | QUIZ*tastic | PED Guide | Xtra Credit | eTutor | A*PLS |
| About Us | Terms of Use | Privacy Statement |

Thanks for visiting AmosWEB
Copyright ©2000-2017 AmosWEB*LLC
Send comments or questions to: WebMaster