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August 16, 2026 

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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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PERSONAL INCOME AND NATIONAL INCOME

Personal income (PI) is the total income received by the members of the domestic household sector, which may or may not be earned from productive activities during a given period of time. National income (NI) is the total income earned by the citizens of the national economy resulting from their ownership of resources used in the production, which may or may not be received by members of the household sector. Personal income can be derived from national income by subtracting income earned but not received (IEBNR) and adding income received but not earned (IRBNE).

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BUSINESS As Usual

In the same mini-mall with Dr. Nova Cain's dental offices and Smilin' Ted's All Comers Insurance Agency, resides Manny Mustard's House of Sandwiches -- one of those small, out-of-the-way, off-the-wall sorts of restaurants that has great food, excellent service, and plenty of atmosphere. Manny, the proprietor, is a good friend of mine who's struggling to turn his dream of restauranteering into reality. His restauranteering dream doesn't stop with one small, out-of-the-way, off-the-way restaurant with great food, excellent service, and atmosphere. No, Manny is shooting for a nation-wide chain of Manny Mustard's House of Sandwiches. He wants to go from being an overworked, underappreciated member of the third estate to a member of the second estate who overworks and underappreciates others. To help out my good friend Manny, let's take a long, hard look at the differences between small business and the larger, Fortune 500 kind.
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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time watching the shopping channel hoping to buy either a cell phone case or a pair of designer sunglasses. Be on the lookout for slightly overweight pizza delivery guys.
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A U.S. dime has 118 groves around its edge, one fewer than a U.S. quarter.
"If I have ever made any valuable discoveries, it has been owing more to patient attention than to any other talent. "

-- Isaac Newton, mathematician, physicist

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