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July 17, 2018 

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A PRIORI: A presumption made before an analysis is undertaken, often based on experiences, beliefs, or deductions from seemingly self-evident propositions about how the world works. This is a Latin for assumption or axiom. A similar sounding, but opposite term is a posteriori, which is derived from observation or facts. For example, in the study of economics of crime you might assume, a priori, that people are basically "good", because that just seems to be part of human nature, and conclude, a posteriori, that people are more likely to commit crimes when the threat of capture and conviction is lower.

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BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS: Assorted economic statistics that provide valuable information about the expansions and contractions of business cycles. These statistics are grouped into three sets--lagging, coincident, and leading. Leading economic indicators tend to move up or down a few months BEFORE business-cycle expansions and contractions. Coincident economic indicators tend to reach their peaks and troughs AT THE SAME TIME as business cycles. Lagging economic indicators tend to rise or fall a few months AFTER business-cycle expansions and contractions.

     See also | leading economic indicators | coincident economic indicators | lagging economic indicators | business cycles | business cycle phases | potential real gross domestic product | full employment | expansion | contraction | peak | trough | investment business cycles | political business cycles | demand-driven business cycles | supply-driven business cycles |


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SUBSTITUTE-IN-PRODUCTION

One of two (or more) goods that use the same resource for production in an exclusionary manner. A substitute-in-production is one of two alternatives falling within the other prices determinant of supply. The other is a complement-in-production. An increase in the price of one substitute good causes a decrease in supply for the other.

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Okun's Law posits that the unemployment rate increases by 1% for every 2% gap between real GDP and full-employment real GDP.
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