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AD CURVE: The aggregate demand curve, which is a graphical representation of the relation between aggregate expenditures on real production and the price level, holding all ceteris paribus aggregate demand determinants constant. The aggregate demand, or AD, curve is one side of the graphical presentation of the aggregate market. The other side is occupied by the aggregate supply curve (which is actually two curves, the long-run aggregate supply curve and the short-run aggregate supply curve). The negative slope of the aggregate demand curve captures the inverse relation between aggregate expenditures on real production and the price level. This negative slope is attributable to the interest-rate effect, real-balance effect, and net-export effect.

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FULL-EMPLOYMENT BUDGET: A hypothetical federal budget that would exist if the economy were at full employment. Differences between the actual federal budget and the full-employment budget result from taxes and expenditures that depend on gross domestic product. The full-employment budget indicates whether any of the federal government's fiscal policy is over- or under-stimulating the economy given the current position in the business cycle. During a recession the federal deficit should be just enough to generate a balanced budget at full employment. The same result is desirable if we're running a surplus with inflation. If the full-employment budget is NOT balanced, however, then we're doing too much or too little by way of fiscal policy and changes are in order.

     See also | full employment | taxes | gross domestic product | fiscal policy | business cycle | federal deficit | recession | inflation | full-employment real production |


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SCIENTIFIC METHOD

A structured way of investigating and explaining the operation of the world by testing and verifying hypothesized relations. The scientific method is a process of discovery, a method of explaining the way the world operates. Positive economics is the application of the scientific method to economic analysis.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time strolling through a department store trying to buy either a rechargeable battery for your cell phone or a T-shirt commemorating the 2000 Olympics. Be on the lookout for high interest rates.
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The wealthy industrialist, Andrew Carnegie, was once removed from a London tram because he lacked the money needed for the fare.
"One worthwhile task carried to a successful conclusion is worth half-a-hundred half-finished tasks. "

-- Malcolm S. Forbes, publisher

ARIMA
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
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