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April 26, 2024 

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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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WAGES, AGGREGATE SUPPLY DETERMINANT: One of several specific aggregate supply determinants assumed constant when the short-run aggregate supply curve is constructed, and that shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve when it changes. An increase in the wages causes a decrease (leftward shift) of the short-run aggregate supply curve. A decrease in the wages causes an increase (rightward shift) of the short-run aggregate supply curve. Other notable aggregate supply determinants include the technology, energy prices, and the capital stock. Wages are an example of a resource price aggregate supply determinant.

     See also | aggregate supply determinants | aggregate supply shifts | change in aggregate supply | change in real production | slope, aggregate supply curve | resource quantity, aggregate supply determinant | resource quality, aggregate supply determinant | resource price, aggregate supply determinant | energy prices, aggregate supply determinant | technology, aggregate supply determinant | capital stock, aggregate supply determinant | aggregate demand determinants |


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INFLATIONARY GAP

The difference between the equilibrium real production achieved in the short-run aggregate market and full-employment real production that occurs when short-run equilibrium real production is more than full-employment real production. An inflationary gap, also termed an expansionary gap, is associated with a business-cycle expansion, especially the latter stages of an expansion. This is one of two alternative output gaps that can occur when short-run equilibrium generates production that differs from full employment. The other is a recessionary gap.

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